Pacquiao - Márquez 4: Predictions

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     Another great match-up is now at hand, as Manny Pacquiao and Juan Manuel Márquez face each other on their fourth and most probably final chapter of their epic rivalry. It's no doubt that these two fighters have grown accustomed with each other, as both combatants have gone round after round making every struggle seemingly too close to call. It's as if both fighters have begun to start cancelling each others strengths. I predict a world-class competition that its standard is unprecedented since the dawn of the sport of boxing.

     A close match up that even knock-outs are seemingly ruled out, despite the promises of both that they would lay down the smack and treat fans for a knock-out. I predict this match would be as close as their previous encounters, and I have stressed since the early days of their rivalry, that Juan Manuel Márquez is the "Pacquiao Nemesis." Until now, I find it hard to predict matches of this caliber simply because of the immense diversities that any outcome would become a realistic possibility. Personally, I have never seen such a close fight between two fighters since their previous fights and still counting.

What about a Fifth Fight? Any Predictions?

     Well, what about it? I mean, its clear that this match-up will never go decisively into each others favor. As usual, I would have to give this fight a toss up. Anyone can win this match-up. Only this time, I am slightly favoring Márquez. Yes, I have once scored their last fight to Manny, but I believe Márquez will now learn how to finally dispose of Manny. I predict Juan Manuel Márquez to win by decision against Manny Pacquiao.

     I also predict that its going to be heart wrecking day for Filipino fans like myself, knowing our countrymen Micheal Farenas will also be facing Olympic Gold Medalist, and my favorite, Yuriorkis Gamboa. I've covered Gamboa before, and being the future prospect in the sport of boxing that he is, he does not disappoint. I predict Yuriorkis Gamboa to get a Technical Knockout against Micheal Farenas in the early rounds.

     I remembered the last time there was emotional grief on a national scale, that time Érik Morales defeated Manny Pacquiao in their first fight. I believe, we will be experiencing the same thing again after the Márquez Camp triumphs over his victory against Pacquiao. There are lots of ways to change the outcome of my predictions naming a few attributes that fighters need to improve once they step into the squared circle.

What it takes to win?

     In order for Manny to win this match against the tough counter-punching mexican Juan Manuel Márquez, he needs to be aggressive. Sure, when we think about Pacquiao, aggression is his patent, but it recently seems too far away, now that Pacquiao is aging away. Stamina will be limited for Manny, as well as diminished reflexes. What Pacquiao needs to do is to be aggressively smart, and not just bombing away regardless.

     Márquez will counter in every mistake that Pacquiao will be making, so he needs to be careful. Márquez has a weakness to poorly react on unpredictability. Pacquiao needs to be unpredictable but cautious. Pacquiao should not get overconfident in knocking down Márquez, since his toughness is a proven fact. Márquez will keep getting up no matter how hurt he is, and mark my word, if he falls down, he will recover as quickly as he's dropped. Márquez needs to be tremedously focused in avoiding that straight left of Manny and not be placed in a position for him to make risks.

     In order for Micheal Farenas to win, he needs to adapt a counter-punching style against the volume puncher in Yuriorkis Gamboa. Boxing teaches us that anybody's got a chance, and despite being a tremendous underdog, Micheal Farenas will always have a chance, considering his strategy is correct. Gamboa is quick handed, powerful, and athletically swift. The only thing that Farenas could have against Gamboa is his toughness and some punching power. All Gamboa needs to do to win is to keep doing the same thing he usually does, and that is, to dominate!

     The correct strategy for Farenas against Gamboa is to counter-punch, there is no other way around it. If Farenas decides to slug it out, he would definitely get caught or rag dolled by Gamboa's speed. Farenas must keep a sturdy defense at all times and not be cocky in dropping his hands. It's time to adapt that Joshua Clottey defense! Anyone has a chance to win. As much as I want Manny Pacquiao to win, only this time, I will be slightly favoring Juan Manuel Márquez in their now fourth and epic rivalry.

What next?

     Pacquiao - Mayweather Jr. is a must, regardless of any outcome of this match. If Márquez beats the Pacman, a fifth fight will be imminent, and Márquez will finally stake his claim to once and for all officially beat Manny, the same way he has been telling everyone after all this time. If Pacquiao will win this, there will probably be no fifth fight despite of how close this match-up will become. As usual, I have no doubt, Yuriorkis Gamboa will dispose of Farenas too, and I mean that, easily. Gamboa IS the future of the professional boxing. I can't wait until Nonito Donaire Jr. gets to trade leather with him.

Picture: A poster of Manny Pacquiao versus Juan Manuel Márquez in their fourth fight. To be held on Saturday, December 8, 2012 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena.

Mayweather - Cotto Predictions

     I am quite happy that Floyd is fighting a quality opponent again. I am pretty disappointed that he fought Victor Ortiz in the past. I knew it was a horrible match-up. I could compare it to the upcoming Pacquiao - Bradley fight. I consider Ortiz and Bradley on the same level. It makes me want to just rip both fights and just watch an Ortiz - Bradley match-up, and by there we can create bigger fights, which was not the case. Miguel Cotto is not in the level of Ortiz or even Bradley. Cotto is a well defined boxing legend as his future is already destined for the Hall of Fame. Mayweather is definitely going into a tremendous fight here, from since he fought Mosley. Cotto did beat Mosley in the past. You would wonder how this match-up will turn out eventually.

Advantage Points:

Miguel Cotto - a tremendous puncher. His most lethal weapon is his devastating left hook which have knocked most of his opponents out with this one punch. He could throw that left hook on the body or head. He has good fundamental boxing skills. He is a recognized boxer-puncher and he does not rush things all the time. He is paced and is ready to trade punch if given the opportunity. Cotto has boxing's famous puncher's chance. A solid and stiff left jab that has been known to knock opponents down with it.

Floyd Mayweather Jr. - a masterful tactician. A pure boxer who is very patient and looks attentively for his shots. His tremendous hand speed allows him to do whatever he likes whether landing crisp accurate combo's or to simply pot shot his opponents through boxing. Floyd Mayweather Jr. has the best boxing defense I have ever seen compared to all fighter's whether in the past or present. Right hand is his money punch as well as his blinding fast whipping left jabs.

Weakness Points:

Miguel Cotto - has good hand speed but slower compared to Floyd's hand speed. If they decide to trade shots, its either Cotto will get a good hard one or two, or Mayweather rag dolls Cotto with blinding speed. His chin is a suspect which can be seen in his fights against Pacquiao, Margarito, and even through someone in the past like Demarcus Corley. Does not have a good defense, it may be solid, but openings are all over the Cotto defense which could be easily penetrated. He is known to have only the left hand, his right hand means nothing.

Floyd Mayweather Jr. - Chin is a bit of a suspect as he once have been knocked down by Zab Judah and hurt badly by Sugar Shane Mosley. Tends to be more defensive at times, which will give opportunities to fighter's to just bomb away regardless of his slick defense. Cannot fight guys on the inside that well, his best bet is to keep leaning back and establish the distance. On the inside he is vulnerable. Throws lesser volume of punches and only make up with accuracy, which loses his punches landed against his opponent.

The Fight:

     Based on the given data above, we can clearly see that Miguel Cotto must jump on Mayweather early when an opportunity arises and pound him on the ropes. He must utilize his strength when Mayweather is trapped. I know Cotto is not much of a volume puncher, but he must punch a lot tonight if he decides to get this victory. When an inside fight is given, Cotto must be cautious but accurately land one or two and not more, or he'll get rag dolled with Floyd's speed. He can volume punch when the Mayweather is on the ropes. Floyd's anatomical positioning in his philly shell defense allows him to block the left punch of Cotto easily, therefore, he must use that right hand of his.

     Preparation for the right hand of Cotto is essential for this fight. Floyd must utilize his brilliant boxing in the center of the ring and not be bullied into the ropes. Special preparation in footwork for Floyd is essential to easily evade a rush-in by Cotto. I predict that a Mayweather jab will work brilliantly in this fight. Cotto has openings despite his defense; a Mayweather jab will easily land through, especially considering the type of speed Floyd possess. Cotto's jab is also lethally effective in this match. It could stun Floyd or even knock him down. It's a battle of the Jab's.


Prediction: Floyd Mayweather Jr. by Unanimous Decision.


     A knock down is possible for both sides. We could see a knock down in any round of the fight. It's just a matter of time. I also predict, that if Cotto will find a way to land a tremendously effective punch that hurts Mayweather and knocks him down, there is a possibility that Cotto will win by Technical Knockout. Still, these are just opinions. In all honesty, I just love doing this sort of things. It amuses me. As a boxing analyst, it brings me great interest to practice my analytical skills in testing my knowledge on things, specifically in boxing. All in all, this is a boxing match, anything can happen. Just like the analogy of Larry Merchant, that boxing is like a box of chocolates when you open them up, you don't know what you're going to get.

Hopkins - Dawson, a disgrace in the sport of Boxing

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Before I start, I want to thank everyone who have read my posts or those who stumbled into my blog. This blog has just reached its 6000 mark and I'm very thankful to everyone.

Now, I have just watched the recent clash between Bernard "The Executioner" Hopkins and "Bad" Chad Dawson. I was in a very relaxed and almost getting into bed until I was enraged with what I saw. Bernard Hopkins, known to be the oldest World Boxing Champion was supposed to defend his Light Heavyweight Championship belt after winning convincingly against Jean Pascal. Chad Dawson on the other hand, had a loss against Pascal, and is now into his comeback into regaining the Championship that was once his. That was the template of the match-up so far, entering into the match. The earlier fights were great, but this fight spoiled everything.

The early rounds were a toss-up. Chad Dawson using range and spearing his punches into Hopkins. The older Hopkins, looked to get Dawson into a hold and hammering him on a semi-clinch. Dawson looked frustrated as he was unable to hit Hopkins on the inside, because he immediately clinches. Ultimately, as Hopkins got close to Dawson on round two, Dawson immediately lifts Hopkins and throws him down on the canvass. Bernard Hopkins clearly unable to continue, as he may have dislocated his left shoulder after being thrown. The referee warns to give a Technical Knock-out if Bernard was unable to continue, which he did. Chad Dawson wins by Technical Knock-out by round two.

Thoughts:
I thought this match was the most craziest thing I have seen in boxing. The Mayweather-Ortiz fight was alright, but the Hopkins-Dawson? Come on. I would have understood if Mike Tyson would bite the ears of Holyfield again, but that is not the point. I have seen the imperfections in the sport of boxing, and to some extent, I have come to enjoy them. Just like when a slip gets called a knock-down or a knock-down turns into a slip. This is what a champion faces in the ring, and he must appear to be unfazed by it, and overcome obstacles.

In the case of the Hopkins-Dawson showdown. I was very disappointed. I mean, you could use the privilege to judge a knock-down without the replays, but to judge a fight because you were not sure what just happened? That to me, is an abuse of privilege, and things must change in boxing as well. I also would like to give emphasis, that this is BOXING, not MMA. Take-downs are not a part of boxing, and if you ask me, you are not supposed to judge the fight as a TKO with that. It almost looked more of an MMA bout rather than a boxing match.

This is what kills boxing.. what destroys it, and I don't want to be put up to this pressure. I too, am an aspiring fighter, and with the kind of reputation that boxing builds today, it makes me have serious doubts if I would be interested to get inside a sport with so much confusion and issues. It all comes down to the judgment of the referee. For me, personally, I blame the ref' for that wrong call. I could pass out a loosely judged knock-out, but to decide the fight is over on a take-down? You must be out of your freaking mind.

The people who watched the fight know that this fight should be judged as a No Contest rather than a Technical Knock-out. People who watched the fight must be really disappointed too, since they paid a fortune to get their seats into this fight, but it ended up short and disappointing. To state it, overall, it sucks! I would want it to be called a No Contest, and let them have a rematch, not because they need it or want it, but for the honor of boxing. It's hard to win fans back into boxing when this sort of things happen.

My Proposal:
It is high time that we should change certain aspects in the sport of boxing. In the old times, fighters would go unlimited rounds until one quits. It changes, and rounds would reach until fifteen. After the death of Duk Koo Kim in their match with Ray Mancini, championship rounds were then cut to twelve. What I want to propose, is the use of replays in boxing matches. For the longest time in sports history, boxing is a sport that do not rely on replays, they resort to the referee's judgment.

It affects all common sense. This is the age of  High Definition LCD screens, Cyber-internet communication, Digital-age, and a lot. Times have past, and so, the sport of boxing must adapt to it as well. I mean, why should we continue with the old? when common sense tells us, there is a replay. This is high time for change, especially with the Bernard Hopkins and Chad Dawson debacle. It just kills the sport, if we are blindly going out through our ways. I know it must be a miracle for me to give everyone a heads-up, I'm just a blogger, but I am a person too, and I say my opinions when things get ugly.

Picture: Bernard Hopkins after a take-down from Chad Dawson.